Bubble in the market American?
Bubble in the market American? one analysis on the political economics of the expansive of them banks central.
We have a never-before-seen scenario. The political monetary ultra expansive of them banks central have drawn a market some that now could enter in a syndrome of abstinence thanks to the tappering of the Fed. Is it possible to be come a new financial bubble? Find out here: Is possible that come a new bubble financial? See here:
From Amundi warn of the risk of forming bubbles in the American market and the tentacles that could extend beyond its own borders. After 10 years without upload types and with them in a range of minimum historical since end of 2008, now the book Federal of USA has that face is to a market accustomed to be enters cotton.
The minimum rate hike of a quarter of a percentage point carried out at the end of 2015 was only an experiment compared with what can come now. If after nine months of 2015 do not have moved tab, when will return to upload them? Eric Mijot, director of strategy of Amundi, indicates that “at the end of this year and during 2017 could upload it again, but we can’t say it safely, because the growth potential is limited”.
The Fed have to walk carefully to not cause a sudden strengthening of the dollar as “corporate profits do not show a stable growth, but peak”. In addition, a strong rise of the ticket green “would entail consequences unwanted in some markets emerging and, if over expires Trump in them elections General, would be even more harmful to markets neighbouring as the Mexican”.
With the rise of types in US could assist to two possible scenarios:
-That not happen anything transcendental
-That burst a bubble. In this sense, some shame, would be exposed particularly in the market of fixed income, where the expert does not doubt that you have created a bubble. But watch out! Because this bubble is not like previous ones “we are facing a new scenario of crisis caused by a depression of the bonds. “We have seen in the past falls in the front pouch climbs American bond yields, but then corporate profits rose and now not”.
The bubble could tell that “is is cooking” also in the income variable, but not is the end of the market. From Amundi does not believe that the investment cycle is finished in the American market, although they recognize that “U.S. bag is expensive, as it is European, but not as much as the American,” says Mijot.
According to a study of Amundi, the equity American is could fit in a “III phase”, a phase prone to them bubbles stock, characterized by a market controlled by them types of interest (instead of by the growth economic), with them banks central hardening slightly their political monetary, a GDP weak that not will remain much time above the 2% (in fact) (, the IMF has trimmed their forecasts to the 1.6 in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017) and with the investors opting for sell materials raw and reward the liquidity.
Despite being in the most delicate and risky phase from Amundi acknowledge that US equities still remains and is the market offering more return, above the high yield and, of course, of sovereign bonds.
However, this does not make that the American market is the alternative of investment more attractive, in fact, Mijot prefer emerging markets, which offer more travel and protection “a neutral, albeit with preferred geographical location. Within them emerging, the expert shows its predilection by India and Philippines, thanks to it improves of the consumption domestic and its exhibition global, while with China shows its reserves.